MARKET TREND CH, Unchanged, SH, Down 2, WH, Down Unchanged
February 19, 2016 07:10 AM
HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CH, Down $.0025; SH, Down $.0125; WH, Down $.015; KWH, Down $.015
· A slightly softer tone is evident in world stocks as the week draws to a close. A stronger yen weighed on Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average while Europe is also recording slight declines at midday. Asia: Shanghai, -0.1%; Hang Seng, -0.4%; Nikkei, -1.4%. Europe: FTSE, -0.4%; DAX, -0.9%. Profit-taking after gains this week may weigh on U.S. stocks as futures are down. Pre-markets: DOW futures, down 42; NAS, off 13; S&P500, -4. Crude oil, -$.65 @ $30.12; Gold, $5.00 higher @$1,231.10; $ Index, -.08 @ 96.88
· T-storm Weather: Upper-level high pressure dominates key areas of South America into next weekend, keeping temperatures warmer to occasionally much-warmer than normal; maximums within +/- 6F of 92F on any given day. Waves of energy parade along the southern edge of the high, triggering heavy thunderstorm clusters every one to two days across Argentina; an additional 2.50" to 5.00" of rain occurs. The central U.S. remains divided by a large upper-level high to the west and seasonably-cold weather to the east over the next 10 to 14 days, leaving key HRW wheat and livestock areas of the Plains warmer to much-warmer than normal (especially through Saturday when widespread maximums in the 60s-70s-80s continue)
· CH, Down $.0025 @ $3.6525; CK, Down $.005 @ $3.6925. Fund selling totaled 3 K on Thursday
· SH, Down $.0125 @ $8.785; SK, Down $.0075 @$8.82. The funds sold 2 K SB, were even SBM and sold 1 K SBO
· WH, Down $.015 @ $4.6075; WK, Down $.0125 @ $4.6725. Fund were sellers of an estimated at 4 K on Thursday
CORN/SORGHUM         </wbr>
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST. Trade expects 24-39 mbu for 15/16 corn
· The 2016 base crop insurance price average of December 2016 corn futures from Feb. 1-18 is $3.8756
· T-storm Weather: Some rain affects Brazil over the next 7-10 days but coverage likely diminishes with northward extent, especially across northern corn areas; better rain chances likely over Feb. 29-March 3
· Ethanol grind: 975,000 barrels/day for week end Feb. 12—up 0.6% vs. last week and 1.1% higher vs. last year
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Sales report. Trade expects 15-26 mbu for 15/16 soybeans; soymeal, 100-250 K MT; and soyoil, 4-20 K MT
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. weekly soybean meal exports forecast at 210 K MT, a year to year decline of 76 K/24%
· The 2016 base crop insurance price average of November 2016 soybean futures from Feb. 1-18is $8.8683
· Export Sales report. Trade expects 7-15 mbu for 15/16 all wheat
· T-storm Weather: Much above normal temps affect key U.S. HRW wheat through Sat. Beyond that a major freeze is not foreseen, but it is unlikely that a freeze would not occur later this month or in March based on climatology
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLH16, -$0.65, $30.12; EBJ, -$0.68; EBJ-CLH, +$3.52, +$.01; RBH, -$.0094; NGH, -0.003; HOH, -$.0149
· ATI Research: Ethanol stocks +262 thou barrel last week for 2nd consecutive weekly record high of 23,218 thou barrels
· Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Thursday: Chicago declined 7/8; New York gained ½; Gulf steady; Dallas eased ½; Tampa slipped 1; and LA was ¼ higher at $1.54 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs declined: 2014’s, 2015’s and 2016’s were all 1 lower at an average of 71 ½, ranging from 71-72
· The March RBOB/March Ethanol inverse was $.0124 weaker on Thursday, settling at -$.433 per gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values declined 96-cents on Thursday, and at $213.39 are $3.63 lower compared to last week
· Estimates for today’s USDA Cattle on Feed: Feb 1 on feed, 99.8%; Jan placements, 99.6%; Marketed in Jan 97.8%
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was $1.11 lower Thursday, but at $75.23 is still 7-cents higher vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.18 to $66.26. April futures were $0.375 lower but are still $4.515 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com
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