Market Trend Corn, Down 2 to 3, Soybeans, Mixed, Wheat, Up 1 to 2
February 18, 2015 07:19 AM
HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Down 2-3; Soybeans, Mixed; Wheat, Up 1-2
· World stocks are firmer on investor optimism ahead of a European Central Bank meeting on bailout conditions for Greece. Many Asian markets were closed for the Lunar New Year, although Japan’s Nikkei increased 1.2% to finish at a 7 ½ year high of 18,199.17. Elsewhere, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 0.2% while European markets were higher. In the U.S. stocks are mixed: DOW, up 2; NAS, +1.7 and the S&P, down 1. Outside markets are seeing energy futures lower; the $ Index is .253 higher at 94.400 and gold slightly weaker.
· T-storm Weather: Heavy thunderstorms slow harvesting and planting in much of Brazil though Friday-Saturday as cool fronts sweep northward. Thunderstorms continue to limit planting and harvesting across South Brazil through at least the first half of next week, but a drier period aids planting and harvesting in Center-West and Southeast Brazil. The exact setup that follows from Feb. 26 forward is unclear, but it remains most probable for thunderstorms to return to Center-West and Southeast Brazil after 5 days or so. Otherwise, Argentina remains cool with a few thunderstorms this week, followed by a wetter pattern next week
· Mar Corn Down $.0275 at $3.8675; May Down $.03 at $3.9475. The funds bought 4 K on Monday
· Mar SB Down $.0075 at $10.07; May Down $.01 at $10.1075. Funds bought 8 K SB; 8 K SBM and sold 4 K SBO
· Mar Wheat Up $.015 at $5.3625; May Unchanged at $5.3175. Funds purchased 4 K on Tuesday
CORN/SORGHUM    
·   ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 14/15 carryout up 25 mbu compared to last week to 1.841 Bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 14/15 carryout down 5 mbu to 27 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Organized rainfall of 2.00” to 4.00” (with locally higher amounts) later this week across Center-West, Northeast and Southeast Brazil is likely to limit second-crop corn planting
· December 2015 corn futures closed at $4.20 ½ Tuesday, which leaves the average price for the contract through Feb. 17 at $4.1548. The average price for the month of February will serve as the base price for 2015 crop insurance
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Updated U.S. soybean balance sheet; 14/15 carryout down 6 mbu to 389 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Rain to limit soybean harvesting across Center-West, Northeast and Southeast Brazil this week
· November 2015 soybean futures closed at $9.86 ¼ Tuesday, which leaves the average price for the contract through Feb. 17 at $9.6280. The average price for the month of February will serve as the base price for 2015 crop insurance
· ATI Research: U.S. HRS wheat balance sheet, 14/15 carryout at 195 mbu; 15/16 carryout is forecast at 210 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Periods of cold to unseasonably-cold weather impact the Corn Belt through 10 to 14 days
ENERGY
· Futures are lower: QCLH15, -$0.90 at $52.63; QRBH, +0.02; QNGH, -$.012; and QHOH, -$.0288
· Cash ethanol markets were mostly higher on Tuesday compared to Friday: Chicago and New York up 1; Gulf added ½; Dallas climbed 3 ½; Tampa tacked on 3; and LA was steady at $1.59 per gallon
· Steady to firmer RINs: 2013’s up ¼ at 71-72; 2014’s added ¼ to 72-73; and 2015’s were steady at 71 ½-72
· The Mar RBOB/Mar Ethanol spread has narrowed 3 cents to $.1151/gallon on Wednesday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values were 90-cents firmer on Tuesday and are 69-cents higher compared to last week
· Cash cattle trading was extremely light on Tuesday with a few showlists priced near $164-$165 in the South
· On Tuesday, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 25- cents higher but is 15-cents lower vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index $0.55 lower to $61.42. April futures down $2.025 to $64.00 and is $2.58 below the index
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