HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Up 1 to Down 1; Soybeans, Down 5-6, weakness in old; Wheat, Down 2-3
· A less than stellar Tuesday U.S. market performance along with the unrest in the Ukraine carried over into Asia where markets fell from 1% (Shanghai, Hang Seng) to nearly 3% (Nikkei). Europe is performing not quite as badly with both the DAX and CAC 40 off .14-.15% while the FTSE is shedding .4% of its value. U.S. futures are all in negative territory: S&P, -0.75; Dow, -7 and the Nasdaq, -6. Gold is a ¼% higher at $1,311.80; energy futures are mixed and the $ Index is .069 higher at 79.315
· T-Storm Weather: Heat and strong winds stress HRW wheat in the southwest Plains today, which also helps a few thunderstorms to form in northern areas of the Corn Belt and Plains as warmth surges northward. Organized rainfall follows across the northern Plains, Corn Belt, and Delta Thursday-Friday to prevent planting in northern areas, and slow it from west to east to the south after a period of favorably-dry and warm weather. Although a few thunderstorms clip parts of the HRW wheat belt Thursday, they initiate across the eastern edge of the wheat belt, then move eastward and exit with minimal rainfall for most
· May Corn Down $.0075 at $5.1225; July Up $.01 at $5.1850. The funds bought another 10 K Tuesday
· May SB Down $.0675 at $14.5725; July Down $.0525 at $14.5425. Funds sold 4 K SB, 2 K SBM and 1 K SBO
· May Wheat Down $.02 at $7.2975; July Down $.0250 at $7.3650. The funds were buyers again, taking a total of 5 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· U.S. corn planting progress for week ending May 11 was 26% in 2013 and the five-year average (2009-2013) is 58%; milo planting progress was 29% in 2013 with the five-year average at 33%
· ATI Research: Look for U.S. corn exports to average 40-45mbu near-term with annual forecast now pegged at 1.8Bbu
· Ethanol margins have dropped sharply: $0.53 per gallon vs. $1.26 last week. EIA report out today at 9:30 AM CDT
· T-storm Weather: Wet forecast next week, especially May 11-14; primarily from northern Plains through Corn Belt
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· U.S. soybean planting progress for week ending May 11 was 5% in 2013 and the five-year average (2009-2013) is 21%
· ATI Research: It seems unlikely that U.S. soybean exports over the next 4 weeks will top last year’s average of 5.1mbu; however, soybean meal shipments should average 10 K higher than 2013 and 20 K above the 5-year average of 127 K
· T-storm Weather: Another round of heat is probable for U.S. HRW wheat within May 12-14
· ATI Research: Bias is U.S. all wheat exports will continue to average 20-25mbu per week near-term
ENERGY
· Futures are mixed with QCLM14, +$0.82 at $100.32; QRBM, -$0.0039; QNGM, -$.007; and QHOM, +$.0107
· A mixed trend was seen in cash ethanol markets Tuesday: Chicago was unchanged; Gulf slipped a nickel; Dallas was steady; New York gained 2; Tamps lost 8; and LA was 14 weaker at $2.09 ½ per gallon
· EIA estimates (API): Crude, +1.2 mb (-1.8); gasoline, +0.1 (+2.4); distillates, +1.2 (+0.8)
· RINs steady to slightly higher: 2012’s unch at 41 ½-42 ½; 2013’s up 1 to 43-43 ½; and 2014’s edged up ½ to 41 ½-42
· The June RBOB/June ethanol spread gained $.0816 Tuesday, settling at $.8908/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· After firming 52-cents Monday, Choice boxed beef values fell $1.02 yesterday
· Cash cattle markets are quiet with feedyards asking $148 while packers bid $144. Cattle traded LW at $146 to $147
· After increasing $1.67 over the previous two trading days, the USDA pork carcass cutout value fell $3.93 yesterday
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price gained 73-cents yesterday to $113.72
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather