HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Higher--CZ: Up $.01; SX: Up $.0725; WZ: Up $.0125; KWZ: Up $.0025
· MACRO: Stocks are mixed, pondering what, if any, upcoming moves Central banks may make. ASIA: Slightly lower—Nikkei, -.16%; Shanghai, -.09%; Hang Seng, -.08%. EUROPE: Higher, CAC, +.28%; FTSE, +,54%; DAX, +.55%. WALL STREET: Futures are higher—DOW, +52; S&P, +7.25 NAS, +16.00. EXTERNALS: $ Index, +.049 @ 95.810; Gold, -$0.40 @ $1,313.4; Oct Crude, -$.29 @ $43.01/barrel.
· T-Storm Weather: Rain amounts of 1.00”-3.00” are forecast to fall into the weekend within/adjacent the northern third to half of the U.S. Corn Belt, including wettest areas of northern Iowa and points north; rain is plausible each of the next four nights along and north of Interstate 80, but highest chances are Wed.-Thu. In contrast, unseasonably mild and dry weather continue through at least Sat.-Sun. across the southeast half of the central U.S., accelerating harvest and winter wheat planting
· Corn: CZ Up $.01 @ $3.3825; CH Up $.01 @ $3.4850. The funds opened the week buying 5 K
· SB: SX Up $.0725 @ $9.7975; SF Up $.08 @ $9.8575. Funds: Bought 3 SB, 6 SBO; sold 2 SBM. Oct crush, $.75 -$.01; LY: $0.96
· Wheat: WZ Up $.0125 @ $4.0525; WH Up $.0150 @ $4.2625. The funds bought 2 K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Corn: Mature stage pegged at 53% vs. 48% for both last year and avg.; harvest at 9% vs. 9% last year and avg. of 12%. Good/Excellent of 74% is steady v. last week (68% in ‘15). Sorghum: Good/Excellent up one point to 66% (66% in ’15)
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 15/16 carryout est. at 1.915 bbu; 16/17 carry-out est. at 2.555 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 15/16 carryout forecast at 35 mbu; 16/17 carry-out pegged at 55 mbu
· T-storm Weather: The pattern somewhat breaks down within Sep. 24-28 when a large system disconnects from the jet stream. Significant rain is probable in parts of the U.S. Plains & western Corn Belt this weekend or early next week
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA pegs U.S. soybean dropping leaves at 46% vs. 50% last year and the avg. of 43%; harvest at 4% vs. 6% in 2015 and the 5-year avg. of 5%. Good/Excellent crop ratings of 73% are steady vs. last week and above 63% in 2015
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 15/16 carryout at 219 mbu, while 16/17 carry-out is est. at 334 mbu
· T-storm Weather: A significant frost is no longer probable next week across U.S. soybean production areas, despite cooling once the upcoming system passes
· ATI Research: U.S. HRS wheat balance sheet; 16/17 carryout projected at 262 mbu compared to 278 last year
· T-storm Weather: Most Argentina wheat stays dry into at least the weekend; slightly better rain chance in 10 days
ENERGY
· Lower: CLV16, -$.29, $43.01; EBX,-$0.29; EBX-CLV, $2.640, -$.03; RBV, -.0268; NGV, +.03; HOV, -$.0010
· A weaker trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago down 1 1/8; New York off 2 ¼; Gulf eased a penny; Dallas declined 1 ¾; Tampa fell 2 ¼; and LA was 3 ½ lower at $1.67 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs steady: 2014’s unchanged at 87 ¼-87 ¾; 2015’s unch at 87 ¼-87 ¾; and 2016’s unch at 87-87 ½
· The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol inverse increased $.0288 to -.07520/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
·   Choice boxed beef values declined 65-cents on Monday to $185.55, and are $1.98 lower compared to last week
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $4.34 v. last week to $109.36/cwt but is $25.57 lower vs. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 51-cents Mon. to $79.65, but is still 69-cents lower v. a week ago
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $25.15/cwt vs. last week’s $29.20, last month’s $31.81 & last year’s $37.17
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather