HIGHLIGHTS
· TR ENDS—Mostly lower: CU, +$.0025; SQ, -$.0325; WU, -$.0625; KWU, -$.0675
· What caught my eye: Ethanol production rose 50 K bpd which was considerably more than trade ideas, marking the first time that implied weekly corn/milo grind was on a pace to exceed USDA expectations since the April WASDE
· Q2 GDP expected to equate to 35% annual drop, largest ever; ‘nuff said. Asia—Weaker: Nikkei, -0.26%; Shanghai, -0.23%; Hang Seng, -0.69%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -2.43%; FTSE, -1.62%; CAC, -1.99%. WALL STREET: Futures, Down --DOW, -244; S&P, -28.75; NAS, -103.5. EXTERNALS: Sep crude, -$0.59 @ $40.68; Gold: -$9.30 @ $1,944; Sep $ Index, +.038 @ 93.470
· T-storm Weather®: temps turn much cooler from north to south today-Fri. across U.S. Corn Belt as a large area of surface-level high pressure slides across the Great Lakes & keeps highs around 80°F & lows around 60°F for several days. A slow-moving system crawls along edge of coolness through Sun., producing a swath of heavy rainfall of 1.00”-3.00” across the southern third of corn & soybeans—namely from far southern IA & MO & points east-southeast through the Delta & central & southern areas of IL-IN-OH
-
CU, up $.0025 @ $3.1575; CZ, up $.0075 @ $3.2775. The funds sold 7 K yesterday on bearish crop sentiment
-
SQ, dn $.0325 @ $8.8825; SX, dn $.0275 @ $8.8250. Funds: Sold 4 SB, 3 SBM, bot 3 SBO. Board crush: $0.66 Q/Q), +4; LY, $0.93
-
WU, dn $.0625 @ $5.2650; WZ, dn $.0625 @ $5.3225. Fund buying was estimated at 6 K—talk of Brazil and China sniffing around
CORN/SORGHUM
·   Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT. Trade expects 8-22 mbu for 19/20 corn and 16-39 for 20/21
· T-storm Weather®: an even cooler surface-level high passes Sun.-Tue. over US Corn Belt, further dropping high temps to mid-70s to low-80s & lows to 50s-60s. Showers (0.10"-0.30" totals) affect at least eastern two-thirds of Corn Belt
· Ethanol grind: total of 958,000 barrels/day for the week ending July 24—up 50 thousand (5.5%) versus last week but 7.1% lower compared to last year’s 1,031,000
· ATI Research: there are still 5 weeks left in the crop year, but at this week’s ethanol grind pace, the demand loss for corn & milo might be a bit less than the USDA is forecasting (-559 mbu for the latter vs. -553 mbu at current pace)
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT. Trade expects 11-18 mbu for 19/20 soybeans and 55-73 for 20/21; soymeal, 150-400 K MT for 19/20 and 0-75 for 20/21; soyoil, 8-30 for 19/20 and 0-5 for 20/21
· T-storm Weather®: an even cooler surface-level high passes Sun.-Tue. over US Corn Belt, further dropping high temps to mid-70s to low-80s & lows to 50s-60s. Showers (0.10"-0.30" totals) affect at least eastern two-thirds of Corn Belt
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT. Trade expects 9-24 mbu for 20/21 wheat
· T-storm Weather®: winter wheat in Australia needs rain because the coverage of 90-day drought elevated for the third straight year, and at least some rain is likely next week as its climate turns wetter and two systems pass
ENERGY
· Lower: CLU20, -$0.59 @ $40.68; EBU, -$0.60 @ $43.15; EBU-QCLU, -0.01; RBU, -.0163; NGU, -.035; HOU, -0193
· Chicago ethanol fell $.0450 yesterday to $1.24; basis, mostly weaker: NYC, -$.0050 @ +$.0750; Gulf, -$.01 @ +$.09; Dallas, -$.020 @ +$.07; Tampa, -$.0050 @ +$.1850; LA, +$.0450 @ +$.18
· Ethanol RIN values, mixed: 2019’s, -.1250 @ 45 ¼ -45 ½; 2020’s: +.1250 @ 47 ½ -47 ¾          
· The Aug RBOB/August ethanol spread was $.0059 wider at midweek, to $.0715/gallon, premium RBOB
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
-
Choice boxed beef declined $1.85 on Wednesday to $201.11, and is $0.04 lower compared to last week
-
Cash cattle on Wed. traded for $97.00-$97.50 throughout the Southern Plains—mostly $1.00 stronger than last week
-
The mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.51 lower on Wed. at $67.30, and is down $1.28 versus a week ago
-
CME Lean Hog Index increased $1.85 on Wed. to $52.97. August futures fell $1.125 but are $0.105 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.