HIGHLIGHTS
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TRENDS—Higher: CK, +$.0225; SK, +$.0175; WK, +$.0575; KWK, +$.02
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What caught my eye: FWIW . . . could 09/10 be an analog corn year? Big bearish surprise in the March stocks report, followed by a bullish June one, all due to “feed/residual” with CN10 soaring nearly $.30 the day of the June report
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Markets express hope a trade deal is on the horizon. Asia: Higher-Nikkei, +0.97%; Shanghai, +1.24%; Hang Seng, +1.22%. EUROPE: Mostly higher—DAX, +1.20%; FTSE, -0.03%; CAC, +0.63%. WALL STREET—futures, higher!DOW, +105; S&P, +13.50; NAS, +42.00. EXTERNALS: May crude: +$0.08 @ $62.66; Gold: +$0.80 @ $1,296; $ Index, NA
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T-storm Weather: Scattered showers affect the central / southern Plains, Delta, and southern two-thirds of the Corn Belt Wed.-Thu., producing 0.25”-0.75” (wettest in / near IA). A larger and stronger system passes Sat.-Mon. and triggers scattered showers and thunderstorms, producing 0.50”-1.50” across a wide area. Temperatures remain chilly through today, then turn sharply warmer as high reach the 50s-60s-70s-80s across a wide area over Thu.-Tue. (Apr. 4-9), or +5°F to +15°F from normal
· CK, +$.0225 @ $3.63175; CN, up $.0275 @ $3.7350. The funds were even in Tuesday’s trading activity
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SK, up $.0175 @ $9.0175; SN, up $.0175 @ $9.1525. Funds: Bought 3 SB; 2 SBM, 4 SBO. Board Crush: $1.02, +3; LY, $1.54
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WK, up $.0575 @ $4.6975; WN, up $.0475 @ $4.7325. The funds were also even in wheat
CORN/SORGHUM
· Consultant: Brazil corn crop est. is increased 1.0 MMT to 94.5 MMT. Thesafrinha (double crop) corn in the north is going to do very well after beneficial rain; some concern about dryness in the south, but rain is forecast near-term
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T-storm Weather: In Brazil, above-normal rain of 2.00”-4.00” is forecast for safrinhacorn over the next 10-14 days
· Ethanol margins: $0.08 per gallon—down vs. $0.14 last week & well below $0.39 in 2018. EIA report at 9:30 am CDT
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ATI Research: Much more corn export competition in ‘19; e.g. corn volume at Argentina ports: 84 mbu v. 51 last year
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. is unch at 54.0 MMT. Recent weather in Argentina has been on the wet side, which has slowed the dry-down of mature beans & led to a slow start to harvest; however, near-term forecast is drier
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T-storm Weather: In Argentina, a dry period dominates central soybean areas the next 10 days, favoring early harvest
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ATI Research: U.S. wheat exports next 4 weeks are forecast at 15-20 mbu per week compared to 18.1 mbu last year
· T-storm Weather: In the U.S., at least 2.00” of rain impacts all SRW wheat over next 2 weeks; 3.00”+ possible in Delta
ENERGY
· Firm: CLK19, +$0.08 @ $62.66; EBM, +$0.34 @ $69.72; EBM-QCLM, +$0.22;RBK, +.0004; NGK, -.003; HOK, +0.0040
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -0.4 (+3.0); Gasoline, -1.5 (-2.6); Distillates, -0.5 (-1.9). Estimates for ethanol production avg. 0.963 mbpd (range: 0.935-0.986). Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 24.840 mb (range 23.948-28.800)
· Chicago ethanol was $.00750 lower yesterday to $1.3225; basis, weaker: New York, -$.0250 @ $.15; Gulf, -$.00250 @ $.15250; Dallas, -$.02750 @ $.1825; Tampa, -$.02250 @ $.3075; LA, -$.01250 @ $.4975
· Ethanol RINs, mixed: 2018’s, +.25 @ 11 ½ -12 ½; 2019’s, -.25 @ 14-15  
· The May RBOB/April ethanol spread popped out $.0396 Tuesday to+$.6005/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 70-cents on Tue. to $80.04, but is 81-cents higher vs. a week ago
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CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.90 on Tue. to $76.70. April futures gained $1.55 and are $2.25 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
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