HIGHLIGHTS
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TRENDS—Higher: CZ, +$.0425; SX, +$.0975; WZ, +$.0250; KWZ, +$.0450
· What caught my eye: Yesterday’s Crop Production: “All forecasts in this report are based on conditions as of October 1, 2019 and assume normal weather for the remainder of the growing season”. Seems a bit friendly given immediate weather outlook
· Hopes for progress in U.S./China trade negotiations? ASIA: Higher--Nikkei, +1.15%; Shanghai, +0.88%; Hang Seng, +2.34%. EUROPE: Higher —DAX, +1.93%; FTSE, +0.36%; CAC, +1.26%. WALL STREET—Up, up & away, maybe-- DOW, +255; S&P, +28.75; NAS, +86.50. EXTERNALS: Nov crude: +$1.00 @ $54.55; Gold: -$3.20 @ $1,498; $ Index:-.157 @ 98.544
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Weather: Dry conditions or just some light mixed precipitation is forecast for western U.S. Corn Belt today-Sat. Temps are projected to be below to much below normal today-Wed.; there is the chance of a growing season ending freeze in some areas Sat.-Wed. Scattered showers & thunderstorms are forecast for eastern Corn Belt today. Some moderate to heavy totals are possible. Temps average above normal through today, but below to much below normal Saturday
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CZ, up $.425 @ $3.4450; CH, up $.0375 @ $3.9525. Bearish report, funds sell 30 K
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SX, up $.0975 @ $9.3325; SF, up $.0950 @ $9.47. Funds: Bot 6 SB, sold 3 SBM, & bot 2 SBO. Board Crush: $0.81, -3; LY, $1.58
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WZ, up $.0250 @ $4.9550; WH, up $.02 @ $5.0175. Fund selling was estimated at 6 K on Thursday
CORN/SORGHUM
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Weather: Dry weather is forecast for western U.S. Corn Belt for Sun.-Mon., although temps remain below normal. Dry weather is also forecast for the eastern Corn Belt Sat.-Mon. with near to below normal temps Sun.-Mon.
· ATI Research: The USDA’s updated 2018/19 U.S. corn carry-out forecast of 1.813 bbu came in 119 mbu below the average trade estimate, reflecting a 0.6 bpa reduction in yield (trade was expecting a 0.5 bpa INCREASE)
· Ethanol grind: Total of 963,000 barrels/day for week end Oct. 5—up 5 thou v. prior week but dn 7.4% v. last year
· Unshipped U.S. corn export sales as of Oct. 3 were 312 mbu, which is down 46% compared to 572 mbu last year
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
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Weather: Dry weather is forecast for western U.S. Corn Belt for Sun.-Mon., although temps remain below normal. Dry weather is also forecast for the eastern Corn Belt Sat.-Mon. with near to below normal temps Sun.-Mon.
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ATI Research: USDA only raised its U.S. soybean yield by 0.3 bpa—about one-half the amount expected by the trade. That, and a 0.5 million-acre reduction in harv acreage kept the carry-out forecast from edging closer to 950 mbu
· Unshipped U.S. wheat export sales as of Oct. 3 were 165 mbu, which is down 3% compared to 170 mbu last year
· ATI Research: U.S. all wheat carry-out forecast of 0.956 bbu was right in line with the trade. Reduction of 1.5 MMT in
ENERGY
· Up: CLX19, +$1.00 @ $54.55; EBZ, +$0.86 @ $59.96; EBZ-QCLZ, -.18; RBX, +.01; NGX, +.006; HOX, +.0299
· Chicago ethanol was up $.0475 @ $1.62; basis values weakened: NYC, -$.08 @ +$.1750; Gulf, -$.0475 @ +$.05; Dallas, -$.0425 @ 0 vs Chi; Tampa, -$.0675 @ +$.08; LA, -$.0575 @ $.14
· Ethanol RINs were weaker with 2018’s,-0.25 @ 7 ½ -10; 2019’s, -0.8750 @ 16 ½ -19    
· The November RBOB/November ethanol spread captured all of Wednesday’s loss, widening $.0485 to $.1400/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY <wbr>  
·  Choice boxed beef was $1.03 higher on Thursday at $215.63 and is up $3.57 versus last week
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December live cattle futures on Wednesday settled at $111.425—a gain of $.25
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $0.46 higher on Thu. at $76.06 but is still up $0.86 versus a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.53 on Thu. at $60.65. October futures eased $0.400 and are $1.75 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
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