HIGHLIGHTS
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TRENDS—Weak: CZ, -$.01; SX, -$.02; WZ, -$.0050; KWZ, +$.0050
· What caught my eye: Well, China may not need that 10 MMT of U.S. beans that were said to be exempt from tariffs—some see a 10-15% fall in bean demand this year and may need to only cover 6-7 MMT of needs before the Brazil harvest hits in February
· Yes and no, UK agrees on Brexit terms but doesn’t buy exit timetable. ASIA: Mostly lower--Nikkei,+0.34%; Shanghai, -0.43%; Hang Seng, -0.82%. EUROPE: Mostly higher—DAX, +0.27%; FTSE, +.47%; CAC, -0.31%. WALL STREET—Futures are weaker-- DOW, -58; S&P, -2.25; NAS, -1.50. EXTERNALS: Dec crude: -$0.54 @ $53.94; Gold: +$7.90 @ $1,495; $ Index: +.049 @ 97.575
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T-storm Weather®: The most likely scenario is for dry weather to affect most U.S. corn and soybean areas into Friday, after which the first in a series of potent systems produces 0.50” to 1.00” of rain Sat.-Sun. across the Corn Belt and Delta with highest totals in/near the Delta. Another system or two quickly follow a similar path within Mon.-Thu. to bring another 0.25” to 0.75” to the Corn Belt and eastern Plains, but higher totals of 0.50” to 1.00” to the Delta
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CZ, dn $.01 @ $3.87; CH, dn $.01 @ $3.99. The funds were even in yesterday’s trading
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SX, dn $.02 @ $9.32; SF, dn $.0225 @ $9.46. Funds: Bot 2 SB; even SBM & bot 5 SBO. Board Crush: $0.81, +2; LY, $1.47
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WZ, dn $.0050 @ $5.1750; WH, dn $.01 @ $5.2325. Fund sales: 3 K
CORN/SORGHUM
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T-storm Weather®: a much drier period develops for U.S. corn Oct. 30-Nov. 1 forward as a strong cold front likely induces a significant freeze around Nov. 1 for much of 74% production that did not experience a killing event Oct. 14
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ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. corn exports is 5 lower on the bottom end of the range at 10-25 mbu per week
· Ethanol margins: $0.23 per gallon—up $.01 from last week & well above $0.07 in 2018. EIA report at 9:30 am CDT
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Through Oct. 22, the 2019 crop insurance harvest price for December 2019 corn futures has averaged $3.9078
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
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T-storm Weather®: a much drier period develops for U.S. soybeans Oct. 30-Nov. 1 forward as a strong cold front likely induces a significant freeze around Nov. 1 for much of 77% production that did not experience a killing event Oct. 14
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Through Oct. 22, the 2019 crop insurance harvest price for November 2019 soybean futures has averaged $9.2597
· Australia could be on the verge of its smallest wheat crop in more than a decade due to persistent drought conditions
· T-storm Weather®: some easing of dryness and drought for Argentina wheat is likely into next month
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ATI Research: current bias on near-term U.S. wheat exports is 11-16 mbu per week
ENERGY
· Lower: CLZ19, -$0.54 @ $53.94; EBZ, -$0.51 @ $59.19; EBZ-QCLZ, +.02; RBZ, -.0081; NGZ, -.016; HOZ, +.0111
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +2.9 (+4.5); Gasoline, -2.1 (-0.7); Distillates, -2.8 (-3.5). Estimates for ethanol production and stocks were unavailable
· Chicago ethanol lost $.0245 Tuesday, easing to $1.4705/gal; basis values were mostly firm: NYC, -$.0005 @ +$.1145; Gulf, +$.0095 @ +$.0645; Dallas, +$.0145 @ +.1195; Tampa, +$.02950 @ +$.2345; LA, +$.0245 @ +$.3245
· Ethanol RINs were steady/firm: 2018’s, unch @ 6 -8; 2019’s, +.25 @ 15 ½ -16; 2020’s, +1.00 @ 23 -24  
·   The November RBOB/November ethanol spread was little changed, narrowing $.0030 to $.1879/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef increased 80-cents on Tuesday to $220.93 and is $2.91 higher versus last week
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Estimates for Oct. 25 USDA Cattle on Feed: Oct. 1 on feed, 98.9%; Placed in Sep., 101.5%; Marketed in Sep., 101.1%
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value plummeted $2.41 on Tues. to $75.48 & is down $1.81 versus a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.05 on Tue. to $65.47. December futures fell $2.325 but are $0.030 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®
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