HIGHLIGHTS
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TRENDS—Weaker: CZ, -$.0150; SX, -$.0275; WZ, -$.0050; KWZ, -$.0050
· What caught my eye: Late in the season but . . . IL corn ratings jump 9 points to 55% G/E; while CO, NE and ND are down 2-3 points. What impact, if any, will these fairly significant changes have on yield?
· Markets work lower after the S&P hits a new record. ASIA: Mostly lower--Nikkei,+0.47%; Shanghai, -0.87%; Hang Seng, -0.39%. EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.196%; FTSE, -.38%; CAC, -0.07%. WALL STREET—Futures are lower-- DOW, -49; S&P, -2.50; NAS, -20.17. EXTERNALS: Dec crude: -$0.71 @ $55.10; Gold: unch @ $1,496; $ Index: +.140 @ 97.904
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T-storm Weather®: U.S. Corn Belt temps turn sharply colder northwest to southeast through Sat. as record-breaking Arctic air oozes southward & leaves readings -15°F to -30°F from normal at times, causing killing freezes to gradually expand over the next five mornings with lows in the 0s, 10s & 20s. A few rain & snow showers form along the leading edge of cold air today, followed by a large-scale storm Wed.-Thu. as a powerful system produces widespread precip of 0.75”-1.50” across the Corn Belt & Delta
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CZ, dn $.0150 @ $3.8250; CH, dn $.0175 @ $3.9275. The funds were sellers of 6 K to begin the week
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SX, dn $.0275 @ $9.18; SF, dn $.03 @ $9.3250. Funds: Bot 1 K SB; 1 K SBM & sold 3 K SBO. Board Crush: $0.87, -1; LY, $1.46
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WZ, dn $.0050 @ $5.1125; WH, dn $.0075 @ $5.1725. The funds also sold 6 K contracts of wheat
CORN/SORGHUM
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Corn Good/Excellent at 58% v. 56% last week & 68% last year. Harvest at 41% v. 61% in 2018 & 5-year avg. of 61%
· ATI Research: Updated U.S. corn ending stocks estimate for 2019/20 is 2.001 bbu vs. October USDA est. of 1.929 bbu
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T-storm Weather®: after this week’s powerful system exits on Thu., a dry period begins and lasts for at least a week as light rain and snow showers are limited to far U.S. northern areas, improving conditions for corn harvesting for most
· U.S. sorghum harvest progress is 65% vs. 52% last year and the 5-year avg. of 62%
· Through Oct. 28, the 2019 crop insurance harvest price for December 2019 corn futures has averaged $3.8989
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
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Soybeans dropping leaves: 97% v. 100% in ‘18 & 5-year avg. of 99%; harvest at 62% v. 69% in ‘18 & 5-year avg. of 78%
· ATI Research: updated U.S. soybean ending stocks est. for 2019/20 is 0.444 bbu vs. October USDA est. of 0.460 bbu
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T-storm Weather®: after this week’s powerful system exits on Thu., a dry period begins and lasts for at least a week as light rain and snow showers are limited to far U.S. northern areas, improving conditions for soybean harvest for most
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Through Oct. 28, the 2019 crop insurance harvest price for November 2019 soybean futures has averaged $9.2618
· U.S. winter wheat planting pegged at 85% vs. 77% last week, 77% last year and the 5-year average of 82%
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T-storm Weather®: little to no rain affects driest southern wheat areas of Argentina over the next 10 to 14 days
ENERGY
· Weaker: CLZ19, -$0.71 @ $51.10; EBZ, -$0.67 @ $60.90; EBZ-QCLZ, +.05; RBZ, -.0208; NGZ, +.065; HOZ, -.0231
· Chicago ethanol eased $.00775 on Monday to $1.5623/gal; basis values were mixed: NYC, +$.00775 @ +$.07775; Gulf, -$.00975 @ +$.04025; Dallas, +$.00275 @ +.07275; Tampa, -$.00225 @ +$.16775; LA, -$.01225 @ +$.23775 Ethanol RINs were weaker: 2018’s, -.50 @ 6-7; 2019’s, -.625 @ 14 ¾ -15 ½; 2020’s, -.6250 @ 23 ½ -25      
· The November RBOB/November ethanol spread widened $.0158 to $.2158/gallon on Monday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY <wbr>  
· Choice boxed beef was $2.46 higher on Monday at $227.90 and is up $7.77 versus last week
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5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price gained $0.40 last week to $110.13/cwt but is $3.68 lower v. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 89-cents on Mon. to $75.32 and is dn $2.57 versus a week ago
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $48.00/cwt vs. last week’s $51.49, last month’s $52.75 and last year’s $40.82
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®
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